Greetings Everyone,
I have decided to post my trades on Collective2.com. For me, this will be the most efficient way for me to display my work. For the prospective subscriber, this is the best way to to verify my trade history.
Please click the links below:
www.collective2.com/go/dahar
www.collective2.com/go/dahfx
Monday January 26, 2009
As I was re-reading The Amazing Life of Jesse Livermore: World's Greatest Stock Trader, I once again noticed the large gaps of time between some of his best trades: 1906, 1907, 1910, 1915, 1916, 1920. Then page 192 sums it up nicely:
"Livermore always considered TIME as a real essential trading element. He often times would say: 'It's not the thinkin' that makes the money-it's the sitting' and waitin' that makes me the money.'
This has been incorrectly interpreted by many people to mean Livermore would buy a stock and then sit and wait for it to move. This is not so. There were many occasion where Livermore sat and waited in cash, holding little or no stock, until the right situation appeared. It was his ability to sit and wait patiently in cash until the 'perfect situation presented itself to him.' When these conditions came together, when as many of the odds as possible were in his favor, then and only then would he strike."
Be patient, the perfect situation has not presented itself.
"Livermore always considered TIME as a real essential trading element. He often times would say: 'It's not the thinkin' that makes the money-it's the sitting' and waitin' that makes me the money.'
This has been incorrectly interpreted by many people to mean Livermore would buy a stock and then sit and wait for it to move. This is not so. There were many occasion where Livermore sat and waited in cash, holding little or no stock, until the right situation appeared. It was his ability to sit and wait patiently in cash until the 'perfect situation presented itself to him.' When these conditions came together, when as many of the odds as possible were in his favor, then and only then would he strike."
Be patient, the perfect situation has not presented itself.
Friday January 23, 2008
At the end of 2008 the market was "scaring" people out. In 2009 it seems like the market is trying to "wear " people out! Rest assured that when the opportunity presents itself, we will buy (or sell!) only the best of the best stocks. Unfortunately now is not that time, so sit tight just as Edwin Lefevre said in the trading classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator:
"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."
Summary: Patience is the key
Market: Trying to rally
Sector: Schools
Stocks: ESI, CPLA, DV
Positions: None
"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."
Summary: Patience is the key
Market: Trying to rally
Sector: Schools
Stocks: ESI, CPLA, DV
Positions: None
Thursday January 22, 2009
On Tuesday the Bank and Insurance sectors were some of the worst performing sectors. On Wednesday they were some of the top performing sectors! Call this market what you will: whipsaw or choppy. I say...
Summary: ...build your watch lists, wait for market confirmation and proper chart set ups.
Market: First day of attempted rally.
Sector: Schools
Stocks: ESI, NPK, BKR, CPLA, DV, EMS, CEPH, MYGN, MANT,
Positions: None
Summary: ...build your watch lists, wait for market confirmation and proper chart set ups.
Market: First day of attempted rally.
Sector: Schools
Stocks: ESI, NPK, BKR, CPLA, DV, EMS, CEPH, MYGN, MANT,
Positions: None
Wednesday January 21, 2009
Can the market go lower? Of course it can. But from a risk reward standpoint, I find it difficult to sell short at these levels. PNC, STT, VSEC ; nonetheless, were all down big yesterday.
Summary: Stay on the sidelines. If you must trade, trade small and to the short side.
Market: In Correction
Sectors (short): Finance related, insurance
Stock (short): AAPL, MA, BLK
Positions: None
Summary: Stay on the sidelines. If you must trade, trade small and to the short side.
Market: In Correction
Sectors (short): Finance related, insurance
Stock (short): AAPL, MA, BLK
Positions: None
Tuesday January 20, 2009
The headlines read: The global banking crisis is weighing heavily on the markets. Mexican mogul could become the largest shareholder in NYTimes. General Mills and Kroger pull peanut butter items. The Nation awaits a new president.
But no matter what the headlines read, always follow the charts.
Summary: Be patient and wait for the market to come to you.
Market: In a correction.
Sector: Schools
Stocks: AIPC, LOPE, LZR, MYRG, DL, APPL (short)
Positions: None.
But no matter what the headlines read, always follow the charts.
Summary: Be patient and wait for the market to come to you.
Market: In a correction.
Sector: Schools
Stocks: AIPC, LOPE, LZR, MYRG, DL, APPL (short)
Positions: None.
2008 Trading Journal Review
"Cut your losses. Let profits run." Traders chant this mantra all the time, but what does it really mean? I went over my trades in Account 1 last year and here is what I found:
CLR -$1446
CMP -$234
ENER -$620
FCL -$209
FSLR $3018
GU -$419
IPI $6948
NSC -500
PCLN $226
PCX $10085
POT -$102
V-$131
In 2008, I made 12 trades in this account. Only 4 were winners. That translates into a 33% winning percentage; yet, we still made over a 100% return!
My takeaway from this review exercise:
1. Be patient and wait for the proper chart setups.
2. Once your entry price is triggered, take your predetermined position size.
3. If you are wrong get out. (Cut losses!)
4. If you are right, sit back and objectively observe the trade. (Let profits run!)
5. If you are trading well, the charts tell you when to get out.
I know this is easier said than done. But do not worry, as the year progresses we will certainly have some money making opportunities. And when the trades do appear, I will walk you through them so we can make some $$$. So stay tuned!
CLR -$1446
CMP -$234
ENER -$620
FCL -$209
FSLR $3018
GU -$419
IPI $6948
NSC -500
PCLN $226
PCX $10085
POT -$102
V-$131
In 2008, I made 12 trades in this account. Only 4 were winners. That translates into a 33% winning percentage; yet, we still made over a 100% return!
My takeaway from this review exercise:
1. Be patient and wait for the proper chart setups.
2. Once your entry price is triggered, take your predetermined position size.
3. If you are wrong get out. (Cut losses!)
4. If you are right, sit back and objectively observe the trade. (Let profits run!)
5. If you are trading well, the charts tell you when to get out.
I know this is easier said than done. But do not worry, as the year progresses we will certainly have some money making opportunities. And when the trades do appear, I will walk you through them so we can make some $$$. So stay tuned!
Friday January 16, 2008
The above chart shows a typical business cycle and the points at which various economic sectors tend to outperform the broader market. Financials and technology typically lead a new bull market. Yesterday the financial sector took it on the chin, so it could be a while before the next bull run begins: BAC -18%, C -15%.
Meanwhile, the markets tested and then rallied off their lows to end a bit higher on Thursday. Volume was higher than Wednesday. The previous November 21 low is still intact. Look for a confirmation of a possible rally in the coming days and continue to build your watch list in the next coming days.
Summary: Wait for market confirmation and proper chart setups.
Markets: Below 50 and 200 day MAs.
Sector: School stocks
Stocks: watching LOPE, AIPC, MYRG, CFL, LZR, MAXY, DL, URG, TIS
Positions: None
Sector: School stocks
Stocks: watching LOPE, AIPC, MYRG, CFL, LZR, MAXY, DL, URG, TIS
Positions: None
Thursday January 15, 2009
If you are not in cash, I would certainly raise cash. Two weeks ago, the markets went up in lower volume and then last week the markets went down in increasing volume. The weakness has persisted this week. That is an ominous sign. Overnight the Nikkei was down 4.92 %, Hang Seng and Straits Times each off over 3.5%. This could get ugly.
AAPL certainly has a large question mark hanging over its head with Steve Jobs announcement.
The best way to spend your time these days is to objectively review your 2008 trades. I will post a review of my trades from 2008 this weekend. I think readers will find it very interesting.
Summary: Be patient and stay on the sidelines. If you must trade: sell short into low volume, non news breakouts and/or sell technically weak charts.
Markets: DJIA looking to retest 8000; NASDAQ already below 1500.
Sector: Looking for weakness in School Sector: STRA APOL CECO COCO
Stock: Watching short: AAPL, BIDU, CF, MON
Positions: none
AAPL certainly has a large question mark hanging over its head with Steve Jobs announcement.
The best way to spend your time these days is to objectively review your 2008 trades. I will post a review of my trades from 2008 this weekend. I think readers will find it very interesting.
Summary: Be patient and stay on the sidelines. If you must trade: sell short into low volume, non news breakouts and/or sell technically weak charts.
Markets: DJIA looking to retest 8000; NASDAQ already below 1500.
Sector: Looking for weakness in School Sector: STRA APOL CECO COCO
Stock: Watching short: AAPL, BIDU, CF, MON
Positions: none
Wednesday January 14, 2009
A viewer mentioned Cramer's discussion of POT on his Monday's Mad Money program (which I do not advocate). Cramer himself will tell you he is more of a "fundamentalist" when it comes to stocks; and it showed, because his "technical" analysis of POT's double bottom did not include volume! I'm not crazy about the fertilizer sector; and as most of you already know, stocks that lead in one bull run rarely lead the next bull.
Summary: Be patient and stay on the sidelines.
Market: Weak
Sectors: Very little leadership
Stocks: Leading stocks are not acting well. Watching LOPE, LDR, HTS, AGNC, RGLD
Positions: None
Summary: Be patient and stay on the sidelines.
Market: Weak
Sectors: Very little leadership
Stocks: Leading stocks are not acting well. Watching LOPE, LDR, HTS, AGNC, RGLD
Positions: None
CSKI January 12, 2009
I sold CSKI today January 12, 2009 for a small gain. I was hoping for a big gain but the charts told me to get out so I got out. I have been asked about my approach to CSKI and here it is in a nutshell:
As the market was cratering in September and October I was short. When my shorts stopped going down, I covered them and I started creating a buy list in early November. By December, it was clear to me that CSKI was strong, relative to the rest of the market and it also had good fundamentals. It became my #1 stock and I started watching it more closely. CSKI then broke its dowtrend on 12/04 and then I made my first purchases on 12/08.
Overall, the markets are weak. Sit on the sidelines and wait for the charts to tell you what to do.
As the market was cratering in September and October I was short. When my shorts stopped going down, I covered them and I started creating a buy list in early November. By December, it was clear to me that CSKI was strong, relative to the rest of the market and it also had good fundamentals. It became my #1 stock and I started watching it more closely. CSKI then broke its dowtrend on 12/04 and then I made my first purchases on 12/08.
Overall, the markets are weak. Sit on the sidelines and wait for the charts to tell you what to do.
2008 Final Results
ONE YEAR RESULTS
Account 1: Starting Value: January 1, 2008 $20,895.40. Ending Value: December 31, 2008 $41,962.82. Gain of $21, 067.42 . One Year Return on Investment: 100.8% .
Account 2: Starting Value: January 1, 2008 $13,464.83. Ending Value: December 31, 2008 $24,175.33. Gain of $10,710.5 . One Year Return on Investment: 79.5%.
THREE YEAR RESULTS
Account 1: Account 1: Starting Value: January 1, 2006 $13,859.07. Ending Value: December 31, 2008 $41,962.82. A Gain of: $28,103.75 Return on Investment: 202.8%. Annualized Three Year Return on Investment: 67.6%.
Account 2: Starting Value: January 1, 2006 $10,270.21. Ending Value: December 31, 2008 $24,175.33. A Gain of $13,905.12 . Return on investment: 135.4% . Annualized Three Year Return on Investment: 45.1%.
Market Summary January 10, 2009
MARKET ANALYSIS: The Nasdaq, DJIA, and SP500 are barely trading above their 50 day moving averages and well below there 200 day moving averages.
SECTOR ANALYSIS: Sector leadership remains lacking. The "school" stocks: STRA, APOL, LOPE, ESI, COCO, and CECO tried to make a case for leadership yesterday. That remains to be seen.
STOCK ANALYSIS: The safest position is, therefore, to remain on the sidelines, in cash while you patiently build your watch list of strong stocks for the next market rally. I am watching APOL, TBV, LOPE, LZR, DL.
POSITION: CSKI (makes up less than 20% of portfolio)
SECTOR ANALYSIS: Sector leadership remains lacking. The "school" stocks: STRA, APOL, LOPE, ESI, COCO, and CECO tried to make a case for leadership yesterday. That remains to be seen.
STOCK ANALYSIS: The safest position is, therefore, to remain on the sidelines, in cash while you patiently build your watch list of strong stocks for the next market rally. I am watching APOL, TBV, LOPE, LZR, DL.
POSITION: CSKI (makes up less than 20% of portfolio)
January 9, 2009
ASEI seems to be the stock du jour. Good above average volume breakout.
Watching: LZR, VSEC and CSKI.
Long: CSKI
Note: Please become a "follower" if you find this blog helpful. Comments are always welcome and for you shy folks, emails can be sent to dahassetmanagement@gmail.com.
Watching: LZR, VSEC and CSKI.
Long: CSKI
Note: Please become a "follower" if you find this blog helpful. Comments are always welcome and for you shy folks, emails can be sent to dahassetmanagement@gmail.com.
January 7, 2008
After yesterday's action I am closely watching: V, MYRG, VSEC, AIPC.
I am not a bottom fisher but if you love value look at LNC. That thing is cheap.
I was asked about PM. Just looking at the chart, I don't really like it.
Long positions: CSKI (up 50% since initial purchase!) AIPC
I am not a bottom fisher but if you love value look at LNC. That thing is cheap.
I was asked about PM. Just looking at the chart, I don't really like it.
Long positions: CSKI (up 50% since initial purchase!) AIPC
DISCLAIMER EVERYONE MUST READ. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE, DO NOT READ THIS BLOG
DISCLAIMER: EVERYONE MUST READ THIS. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION, DO NOT READ THIS BLOG!.
ALL COMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION ON THIS BLOG ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. NOTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THIS BLOG SHOULD BE A INTERPRETED AS A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, SELL OR HOLD A SECURITY. ALL VISITORS SHOULD ALWAYS DO FURTHER RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE SOLEY THE OPINION OF THE WRITER AND NOT OF ANY OTHER COMPANY, ENTITY, FINANCIAL INSTITUTION, OR INDIVIDUAL, IMPLIED OR NOT IMPLIED. ANY INFORMATION SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS OF THE PUBLICATION DATE AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE, AND WILL CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
ALL COMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION ON THIS BLOG ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. NOTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THIS BLOG SHOULD BE A INTERPRETED AS A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, SELL OR HOLD A SECURITY. ALL VISITORS SHOULD ALWAYS DO FURTHER RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE SOLEY THE OPINION OF THE WRITER AND NOT OF ANY OTHER COMPANY, ENTITY, FINANCIAL INSTITUTION, OR INDIVIDUAL, IMPLIED OR NOT IMPLIED. ANY INFORMATION SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS OF THE PUBLICATION DATE AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE, AND WILL CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
Account Values
Account 1: January 1, 2006: $13,859 -December 1, 2008: $38,242. Return on investment: 175%, Simple annualized return over 3 years 58.6%.
Account 2: January 1, 2006:$10,270-December 1, 2008: $19,783. Return on investment: 92.6%, Simple annualized return over 3 years 30.8%
Account 2: January 1, 2006:$10,270-December 1, 2008: $19,783. Return on investment: 92.6%, Simple annualized return over 3 years 30.8%
January 3, 2009
Stocks I am watching: CSKI, LOPE, RHIE, LZR, CPBY, HOGS, HSNI
Positions: Long CSKI, LOPE
Positions: Long CSKI, LOPE
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